Friday, December 5, 2008

The Plague...

A disgruntled man called his friend one day saying that he has got the financial blues.

"What blues?" his friend replied.

"The current global financial malady that's affecting the world. It's been called a financial crisis, tsunami, meltdown, Armageddon, nuclear fallout, cancer, nightmare etc – substitute your favourite adjective. Call it what you will but it is spreading like a plague. Where have you been?" he cried in exasperation.

Where indeed.

Countless people have written, debated, criticized, theorised, opinionated, offered professional solutions ad infinitum. Many have had their fortunes, retirement nest egg, education fund, savings etc wiped out overnight. Many another lost their jobs. Assets that within just a few short weeks have been reduced to worthless liabilities. Some of us have a clear perception of the whole mess, some perhaps the bits and pieces and yet others haven't a clue or just not bothered. This last group would inherit the earth.

Why? Because unlike the disgruntled whiner above (read on to discover his identity) many another has gone on to discover new opportunities, develop existing relationships (both personal and business), create new networks, re-educate themselves among the many endeavours available to us all. Some who have made their fortunes (great and small) have decided that they have sufficient put aside to live within their means and simply go into semi-retirement. These same people will remember that once upon a time they saw opportunities present themselves and went ahead to grab them. They succeeded and re-invested their profits in various fixed income financial instruments that did not promise grillions of percent in return and saved just for a rainy day. Like now.

Would you like to know the secret that this select group possesses in spotting the opportunities? Well that's quite simple really – they made their fortune in the last two global financial scares in the 80s and 90s. Yes the same financial "malady" and "sickness" the world's media have been reporting about for most of the second half of 2008 to the point of boredom have occurred before. The surprise is how come we didn't see it coming again. And what are we doing about it this time around?

For the moment let's put the whys, whats and hows behind us and remind ourselves that what has occurred and still occurring in the world today was/is created by mere mortals. This monster seemingly morphed overnight to devour everything in its path was a man made disaster waiting to happen and when it manifested itself the world's financial institutions, moguls and authorities did not have a clue how to handle it and perhaps still don't.

Fear can be a powerfully destructive force if we allow it to destroy our state of mind. Or it can be a powerful energy if we know how to harness it as strength.

The events that have unfolded are now being handled in a globally coordinated approach and the better-prepared and responsible governments have implemented measures to contain the contagion. With such a massive concerted action never before seen there is perhaps a glimmer of hope in this foggy twilight and may I respectfully suggest that the worse is over give or take the occasional blips. And survive this episode we will because like all human experiences this too will come to past. History has much to teach us. If we allow it to.

As citizens of this increasingly global market we all have a part to play and we can start by being proactive and not get mired in a self-fulfilling prophecy. The stock and other financial markets are currently reflecting the nervousness and shear lack of confidence in the global economy. This phenomenon is a herd instinct and it is entirely up to every single one of us to give our markets a boost by being positive about its performance. In short we can make a difference by buying instead of selling.

The financial markets are not as complicated as most "experts" would like us to believe – just picture a scenario where a day dawns and just a third of the world's investors start buying? It could be anything from stocks to indices to property to cars to audio – you get the idea. This may sound flippant and irresponsible but the most effective remedy for the current financial malady is simply to start buying again. Besides the feel good factor we are all contributing to the recovery we are all hoping for.

Demand will generate business and thus jobs. We will have more disposable income and with that more confidence to invest in the markets again. Property prices will appreciate reflecting the positive sentiments and true market value. For my part I am selectively buying small into the global stock markets and nosing about for a nice property to enhance my investment portfolio. Although I have yet to turn a profit I am confident in time I will. I am also re-modeling my home to capitalize on the very much lower cost of raw materials and labour charges. And of course upgrading my reference audio system.

So let us stop waiting for the recovery to happen from the (anticipated) middle of 2010 as touted by numerous financial experts, media and captains of industry - self styled or bona fide. After all weren't they the same experts who got us into this mess in the first place?

Let's instead help ourselves. Like those who made their fortunes in the last two financial "crises". And set us on the road to recovery from this moment on. Finally don't be like the whiner whose conversation circa 1997 I was referring to at the beginning. I know the story well. That whiner was I.